reflections
Will Josh Willingham boost Twins’ power?

The Minnesota Twins’ pursuit of Josh Willingham makes sense for them, but does it make sense for him? The Twins need a left fielder to plug into the lineup to replace Delmon Young, and they need right-handed power to replace Young and Michael Cuddyer.

[+] Enlarge Josh Willingham

Kelvin Kuo/US PresswireFormer A’s outfielder Josh Willingham slugged 29 home runs last season.

Part of this is a function of their lineup, which rests upon the left-handed bats of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. That’s a fairly fragile proposition at this point, just like the two stars themselves, assuming Morneau ever completes his comeback from post-concussion symptoms. The Twins finished next to last in the AL in runs scored, finishing ahead of only the Mariners. They also finished last in the AL and 29th in the major leagues in Isolated Power — even with the advantage of a DH.

That in turn is a function of their ballpark. The one team that finished behind the Twins in ISO, the Padres, play in Petco Park, the best pitchers’ venue in the major leagues. But using the 2012 edition of the irreplaceable “Bill James Handbook,” you’ll see that the Twins’ Target Field indexes worse than any other in park factor for home runs across the past two years (76, when 100 is average). However, with just two years in existence, Target Field’s numbers have already bounced around a bit; last year, it rated 104 for right-handed hitters’ homers. That’s far from the biggest boosts via park power: The Yankees’ short-porch in right field indexes at 143 across three years and the White Sox’s equally short porch in left indexes at 138. But in a park that slightly favors pitchers (95 over two years), that looks like an exploitable advantage for a Twins team that needs power.

Hence, the addition of Willingham on top of initially signing Ryan Doumit to help provide power at DH, catcher, first base and/or the outfield corners. Coming off a 29-homer season for the A’s in equally pitcher-friendly, power-strangling Oakland Coliseum, Willingham should be an outstanding third wheel and right-handed foil to Mauer and Morneau. But does signing with the Twins make sense for Willingham? We’ll see what the terms will be on what’s already reported to be a multiyear deal — it’s hard to beat handsome compensation, certainly, especially as a free agent heading into your age-33 season.

But beyond cash, is Minnesota where you want to wind up? Can the Twins contend? Signing Willingham is the latest move in GM Terry Ryan’s speedy bit of retooling. First, he added Jamey Carroll to provide an OBP boost at the top of the order and to play shortstop, then he added Doumit’s flexibility and bat. If this aging crew can complement Mauer and Morneau, with Ben Revere and Denard Span in the outfield, the Twins have what looks to be a contending lineup in a potentially expanded playoff format and a weak division. That’s if everyone stays healthy; if the Tigers come back to the pack, that would also help, but that’s obviously outside of Ryan’s control.

The downside of signing Willingham is what it means for the Twins’ already-ragged defense. After rating negatively as a left fielder in four of the past five years via Total Zone (and three of five via Baseball Info Solutions’ Plus/Minus) putting him in left field doesn’t figure to do Twins pitchers any favors. Adding him on top of the DH-worthy Doumit and Carroll (with his weak range at short) makes it especially hard to sustain the faith in fundamentals that’s supposed to be a Minnesota mantra. But the Twins already rated last in Defensive Efficiency and Baseball Prospectus’ Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last year, so it wasn’t like they could rank any lower. But they could get worse.

In the end, adding Willingham should help power a much-improved Twins offense — how could he not? You can appreciate the problem from Ryan’s perspective, because he was already tasked with shoring up an offense. The new problem is whether or not Willingham’s the latest poor addition to what might be a particularly bad defense lined up behind a pitching staff already well known for its pitch-to-contact tendencies. Come the season, it could be a summer of slugfests in the twin cities.

Not much else going on in the MLB planet today.

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MLB buzz

The Minnesota Twins were among the finalists for newly-signed Dodgers lefty Chris Capuano, and now general manager Terry Ryan must turn to other options as he attempts to upgrade his rotation.

One name on the Twins’ list: Jeff Francis.

The Twins have had initial talks with a representative for Francis, a source said, and the sides are likely to have further discussions at the winter meetings in Dallas next week. The Canadian left-hander went 6-16 with a 4.82 ERA for the Royals this season, his first as an American League pitcher.

The Twins also are interested in free-agent right-hander Edwin Jackson but are wary of his price tag, according to a major-league source. Jackson, represented by Scott Boras, is coming off a season in which he went 12-9 with a 3.79 ERA in 199-2/3 innings for the White Sox and Cardinals.

The starting rotation is one of many areas where the Twins must improve if they want to contend in 2012. At present, their rotation figures to include a combination of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey; Baker and Blackburn were sidelined by injuries at the end of the 2011 season.

– Jon Paul Morosi

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Twins franchise left searching for its identity…

  • Joe Mauer
  • Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer faced plenty of criticism in 2011. Associated Press

MINNEAPOLIS – The Minnesota Twins started the 2011 season looking for their third straight division title and hoping to establish themselves as one of the elite teams in the American League.

With a nucleus of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and a beautiful new ballpark in downtown Minneapolis, the Twins seemed like the class of the division.

Six months later, the Twins really don’t know who they are after the single most disappointing season in franchise history. Mauer, Morneau and virtually every player that matters missed major time with a significant injury and the Twins went 63-99, narrowly avoiding becoming just the second team in franchise history to lose 100 games in a season.

“It’s hard to find any positives in this season. For myself, there’s nothing positive I can take out of it,” said Morneau, who missed 93 games with symptoms from a concussion lingering as well as neck, knee and foot injuries. “Disappointing is probably an understatement.”

How bad did it get? Mauer became the target of the kind of criticism from fans and the media that once was believed to be unthinkable for the hometown hero. He played just 82 games and missed most of the first two months because of an injury the team described as “bilateral leg weakness.”

The All-Star catcher’s inability to play through injuries, and his unwillingness to openly discuss what was bothering him, prompted questions about his toughness in the first year of an eight-year, $184 million contract extension. He also missed the last two weeks of the season with pneumonia and finished with a .287 average and just three home runs.

“There’s no question that we have a good ballclub here,” said Denard Span, who missed 92 games with a concussion. “But we’ve got to dig deep for next year. Everybody should go home in the offseason with a chip on their shoulder. Nobody in this clubhouse should leave feeling good. That’s from the top spot to the coaching staff, Joe Mauer, myself, Justin Morneau, everybody in this clubhouse ought to go home for the season with something to prove next year.”

Frustration was rampant throughout the clubhouse. It started when Kevin Slowey resisted taking a spot in the bullpen after losing a competition for the starting rotation in spring training, then spread to Mauer, Morneau, Span, Jason Kubel (foot), Scott Baker (arm), and several other key players.

Even the highlights of the season were short-lived. Jim Thome hit his 600th career homer in a Twins uniform, but was traded to Cleveland 10 days later after the team faded from contention.

Francisco Liriano threw a no-hitter against the White Sox, only to land on the disabled list again with arm trouble.

The Twins also parted ways with Delmon Young, shipping him to Detroit, and one of general manager Bill Smith’s biggest decisions – trading shortstop J.J. Hardy to Baltimore for a pair of minor league relievers and signing Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka to take his place – blew up. Nishioka broke his leg in the first series of the season and then looked overmatched the rest of the way while Hardy hit 30 home runs for the Orioles.

Now Smith will be faced with more difficult decisions. The Twins’ payroll reached $115 million this season, and after watching the results on the field, it could be a tough sell to ownership to get to that number again.

“I think we pushed it beyond where we should have,” Smith said. “Ownership let us go with it in an attempt to win and it didn’t work. It backfired a little bit. All of the injuries made it tough.”

“We want to win and ownership wants to win. We also have to be somewhat responsible. Payroll becomes a function of revenues. We’re going to have plenty of money. We’re going to win with players not money.”

Manager Ron Gardenhire said he would like to see Cuddyer, Kubel and closer Joe Nathan return, but that seems unlikely.

“Walking out of the clubhouse, whether it’s today or tomorrow after I come in and pack up the locker and stuff, it will definitely be a different feeling with the uncertainty of not knowing whether I’m coming back,” Cuddyer said.

While most teams head into every offseason knowing they have holes to fill, the Twins are in the unfortunate and somewhat powerless position of having to hope. They hope changes in Mauer’s offseason workout routine will help him report to spring training strong enough to endure the challenges of catching for a full season.

They hope that Morneau will finally be able to put the concussion symptoms that have lingered for more than 18 months behind him and also have to hope that Span will report clear-headed as well.

“There’s issues we have to address, and there’s things we’re going to have to fix, and add some people and get some people healthy all at the same time, and go from there like a lot of ballclubs,” Gardenhire said. “But we start with the first issue, and that’s the health. We have to have these people back on the field.”

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Twins enter offseason of uncertainty

The Minnesota Twins started the 2011 season looking for their third straight division title and hoping to establish themselves as one of the elite teams in the American League.

With a nucleus of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and a beautiful new ballpark in downtown Minneapolis, the Twins seemed like the class of the division.

Six months later, the Twins really don’t know who they are after the single most disappointing season in franchise history. Mauer, Morneau and virtually every player that matters missed major time with a significant injury and the Twins went 63-99, narrowly avoiding becoming just the second team in franchise history to lose 100 games in a season.

“It’s hard to find any positives in this season. For myself, there’s nothing positive I can take out of it,” said Morneau, who missed 93 games with symptoms from a concussion lingering as well has neck, knee and foot injuries. “Disappointing is probably an understatement.”

How bad did it get? Mauer became the target of the kind of criticism from fans and the media that once was believed to be unthinkable for the hometown hero. He played just 82 games and missed most of the first two months because of an injury the team described as “bilateral leg weakness.”

The All-Star catcher’s inability to play through injuries, and his unwillingness to openly discuss what was bothering him, prompted questions about his toughness in the first year of an eight-year, $184 million contract extension. He also missed the last two weeks of the season with pneumonia and finished with a .287 average and just three home runs.

“There’s no question that we have a good ballclub here,” said Denard Span, who missed 92 games with a concussion. “But we’ve got to dig deep for next year. Everybody should go home in the offseason with a chip on their shoulder. Nobody in this clubhouse should leave feeling good. That’s from the top spot to the coaching staff, Joe Mauer, myself, Justin Morneau, everybody in this clubhouse ought to go home for the season with something to prove next year.”

Frustration was rampant throughout the clubhouse. It started when Kevin Slowey resisted taking a spot in the bullpen after losing a competition for the starting rotation in spring training, then spread to Mauer, Morneau, Span, Jason Kubel (foot), Scott Baker (arm), and several other key players.

Even the highlights of the season were short-lived. Jim Thome hit his 600th career homer in a Twins uniform, but was traded to Cleveland 10 days later after the team faded from contention.

Francisco Liriano threw a no-hitter against the White Sox, only to land on the disabled list again with arm trouble.

The Twins also parted ways with Delmon Young, shipping him to Detroit, and one of general manager Bill Smith’s biggest decisions — trading shortstop J.J. Hardy to Baltimore for a pair of minor league relievers and signing Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka to take his place — blew up. Nishioka broke his leg in the first series of the season and then looked overmatched the rest of the way while Hardy hit 30 home runs for the Orioles.

Now Smith will be faced with more difficult decisions. The Twins’ payroll reached $115 million this season, and after watching the results on the field, it could be a tough sell to ownership to get to that number again.

“Walking out of the clubhouse, whether it’s today or tomorrow after I come in and pack up the locker and stuff, it will definitely be a different feeling with the uncertainty of not knowing whether I’m coming back,” Cuddyer said.

Manager Ron Gardenhire said he would like to see Cuddyer, Kubel and closer Joe Nathan return, but that seems unlikely.

While most teams head into every offseason knowing they have holes to fill, the Twins are in the unfortunate and somewhat powerless position of having to hope. They hope changes in Mauer’s offseason workout routine will help him report to spring training strong enough to endure the challenges of catching for a full season.

They hope that Morneau will finally be able to put the concussion symptoms that have lingered for more than 18 months behind him and also have to hope that Span will report clear-headed as well.

“There’s issues we have to address, and there’s things we’re going to have to fix, and add some people and get some people healthy all at the same time, and go from there like a lot of ballclubs,” Gardenhire said. “But we start with the first issue, and that’s the health. We have to have these people back on the field.”

___

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Twins fall to streaking Tigers 2-1

After allowing two runs in the first inning, Scott Diamond shut down the streaking Detroit Tigers.
It turned out the damage was done.
Doug Fister pitched seven scoreless innings in another terrific start for Detroit, outdueling Diamond and leading the Tigers to a 2-1 win over the Minnesota Twins on Sunday.
Diamond (1-4) allowed two runs, one earned, and seven hits in six innings. The rookie left-hander struck out four, walked four and got little support from his offense.
“All I can do is keep pitching,” Diamond said. “I’m up here to succeed, and to pitch that well against a great offense like Detroit is going to give me a lot of confidence going forward.”
The AL Central-leading Tigers have won nine straight for the first time since 1984, when Detroit won the World Series.
Fister (8-13) allowed three hits, struck out five and walked two. Joaquin Benoit pitched the eighth, and Jose Valverde allowed a run in the ninth but held on for his 43rd save in 43 chances.
The Twins have lost eight of nine.
Detroit scored both of its runs in the first. Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez and Delmon Young started with consecutive singles for a 1-0 lead, then second baseman Matt Tolbert misplayed a potential double-play grounder by Miguel Cabrera for an error. Victor Martinez did bounce into a double play, but another run came home.
Martinez ended up hitting into four double plays, becoming the first player to do that since Joe Torre on July 21, 1975, for the New York Mets against Houston, according to STATS, LLC.
Martinez grounded into double plays in his first three at-bats, then came up with a man on first in the eighth and hit a line drive that was caught by Chris Parmelee, the first baseman. After diving toward first to make the catch, Parmelee simply reached out and touched the base to double off the runner.
“I felt like high-fiving Victor — he was making outs like crazy for us,” Twins manager Ron Gardenhire joked. “Apparently, it takes a great hitter to make eight outs in one game, because I’ve never seen anything like that. Even he looked like he was laughing after the line drive for the fourth one. If I were Victor, I’d probably go home and have a glass of … orange juice. Maybe even with something else in it.”
Valverde allowed a walk to Joe Mauer and a single to Luke Hughes to start the ninth. Parmelee flied out to shallow left, and pinch-hitter Jason Kubel drove in a run with a groundout to first, moving the tying run into scoring position.
When Rene Tosoni struck out swinging to end it, the always-demonstrative Valverde dropped briefly to a knee before getting up, pumping his fist.
“We got close in the ninth, but you need someone to put a good swing on the ball in that situation,” Gardenhire said. “We got a couple people on, and then we just couldn’t get one more big hit.”
Fister was acquired to give the Tigers more pitching depth, but he’s staked a legitimate claim to being Detroit’s second-best starter behind Justin Verlander. In his last five starts, he’s allowed three earned runs in 36 2-3 innings, striking out 36 and walking four.
Minnesota had runners on first and second with one out in the fifth, but shortstop Jhonny Peralta made a nice stop on Tolbert’s grounder for a force play at second. Fister struck out Drew Butera to end the threat.
The 6-foot-8 Fister also made a couple graceful defensive plays. The right-hander knocked down one comebacker with his glove hand, then scooped up the ball without breaking stride and threw to first for an out. He later jumped to catch a soft line drive up the middle.
“That’s something I take pride in, something I have fun with,” Fister said. “The best advice I ever got was: ‘Try and stay athletic and have some fun.’”
NOTES: The game was played in 2 hours, 19 minutes. … Minnesota INF Danny Valencia was scratched from the lineup with right shoulder soreness. … Ordonez extended his hitting streak to 11 games with a first-inning single. … The Tigers travel to Chicago for a three-game series with the White Sox. They’ll send Rick Porcello (13-8) to the mound Monday night against John Danks (6-11). … Minnesota’s next game is Tuesday night at Kansas City. Carl Pavano (8-11) will start for the Twins against Bruce Chen (10-7).

That’s all for today.

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